Which breakout method actually works?
We tested 24 breakout methods on the same 2 years of hourly data: Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, EURUSD and USDJPY. Same stops, same 1:2 target, spread charged. Most of them lose money. Here is the honest scoreboard.
Scoreboard
R = result in units of risk (1R = the distance to the stop). "Halves" splits the data in two to check the result is not one lucky stretch. BRK = enter on the breakout close, RET = wait for a retest of the level, BRK+T = breakout only when the 4h trend agrees.
More factors together, better trades
For the best method (consolidation box + retest) we checked three extra conditions: the 4h trend agrees, the 100-day trend agrees, and the break happens in the London/NY session. The more that agree, the better it did:
Recent finished setups (shown with a 24-hour delay)
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Please read: This is educational research, not financial advice. These are backtests on about two years of data; real trading has slippage and costs that are not fully captured, and every method here can lose money. Several methods were tested on the same data, so some good-looking results can be luck. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trade small.
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